The Oklahoma City Thunder aim to keep things rolling with a road test on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 3-1 in the last four games, improving to 18-22 overall, and the Thunder visit the Miami Heat for a cross-conference showdown. Miami is 21-20 overall and 11-9 at home. Bam Adebayo (wrist), Tyler Herro (Achilles), Kyle Lowry (knee) and Caleb Martin (quad) are out for the Heat. Aleksej Pokusevski (toe) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) are out for the Thunder.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 2-point home favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 222 in the latest Thunder vs. Heat odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Heat vs. Thunder match-up, take a look at SportsLine’s advanced computer model and what it projects for this game.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 43-19 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Thunder vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Heat spread: Heat -2
- Thunder vs. Heat over/under: 222 points
- Thunder vs. Heat money line: Heat -130, Thunder +110
- OKC: The Thunder are 10-8 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 6-13-1 against the spread in home games
- Thunder vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Why the Thunder can cover
Oklahoma City has a budding star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is in the top five of the NBA in scoring (30.9 points per game), and he is shooting 50.1% from the field with 5.6 assists per contest. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in free throws made (337), and he is in the top five with a 91.1% mark at the charity stripe. Oklahoma City ranks in the top five of the NBA in points in the paint (55.5 per game) and turnover rate (13.5%), and Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine.
On the defensive end, the Thunder excel in havoc creation, ranking in the top five in turnovers created (16.9 per game) and steals (8.2 per game). Oklahoma City also leads the league in fast break points allowed (11.1 per game) with above-average marks in blocked shots (5.2 per game) and field goal percentage allowed (46.7%) to opponents this season.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami has seven players averaging in double-figures, and the Heat move the ball effectively and unselfishly on offense. The Heat are in the top five of the NBA in turnover avoidance, committing only 13.4 giveaways per game. Oklahoma City’s defense has some glaring weaknesses, including bottom-five marks in free throw prevention (25.7 attempts allowed per game) and defensive rebound rate (69.2%).
On the other end, Miami’s defense is excellent, allowing only 111.2 points per 100 possessions and leading the league in points allowed in the paint (44.8 per game). The Heat are in the top three of the NBA in free throw prevention, fast break points allowed, turnovers created, and steals per game, with top-10 marks in second-chance points allowed and defensive rebound rate.
How to make Thunder vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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