Bitcoin- Mini bull run in the first semester of 2023? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Mihai_Iacob

Technically:

At the beginning of November, Bitcoin has broken under important 18k support and reached 15500. After a retest of the broken support, BtcUsd fell again, but, instead of making a new low, made a higher low and started to consolidate again and even made a small double bottom in the past month or so.

Now the neckline of this double bottom is broken ( 17k ) and the target for this is towards 18k resistance. In the eventuality of a rise to 18k, 16300 is confirmed as a higher low and there is a high chance of a break back above 18k which would confirm a false break and a bear trap.

This whole outcome could lead to further gains and my first target is 21k .

Common sense:

First of all, after the 18k break back in November, the drop lacked continuation, instead, we have consolidation and even a lot of bad news came from the crypto market Bitcoin stud still.

Second…

This “invitation” to sell on a stable market because all will drop is something I don’t buy.

Selling at 16-17k and rebuying it at 10k would be too simple.

My Trade:

I know there are a lot of “ifs” in my analysis, but if you traded long enough you know that, in fact, you should work with “ifs” and take a trade step by step.

Only idiots have certainties(and know that Bitcoin will go to 1mil or 0, depending on the bias), intelligent people have doubts, I’m not an intelligent man, so I have stop loss…:)

So.. here is my personal trade at this moment:

Bought at 16700 in anticipation of a break above 17k (so far I’m correct)

Stop loss is around 16k, but for the sake of round numbers, let’s say 15700

Take profit, at this moment, is at 21k

Considering a buy trade of 1Btc, the potential loss is 1000usd and the potential profit si 4k, this would mean 1:4 R: R which for me, as a speculator, is fabulous.

As I said, a lot could happen, and if the price is breaking 18k and going towards 20k with buying power I even can aim for 25k and remove TP from 21k .

Nevertheless, my potential loss for this trade is already counted for and now is the market’s turn.

Have a nice trading week!

Mihai Iacob